LOST Tip LOST Belgium 0-1 France

Belgium vs France - Prediction & Betting Tips

BBelgium 0-1 FranceF
7:45 pm .King Baudouin Stadium (Brussels)
Home
WLWWW
6W 3D 1L
^ Improving
Away
WLLWW
8W 0D 2L
- Steady
100SureTips SelectionMonday, 28th September 2026
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob
91.7%
Bookmaker implied
Our Edge
-16.7%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
01Supporting Bets
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 - over 1.5 goals
1.09
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Belgium vs France Competition: UEFA Nations League Date: Monday, 28th September 2026 KO: 7:45 pm Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals) Odds: 1.09 Confidence: 75% Model Correct Score: 1-1 Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
02Head to Head
2
Belgium
2
Draws
6
France
10
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 1.5 in 60% of H2H.
03Stats Duel
Belgium
Metric
France
2.4
Goals For / Game
2.4
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.1
40%
Clean Sheets
50%
6-3-1
W - D - L
8-0-2
Win Rate
60%
80%
3.4
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
04Correct Score Projection

Our most likely scorelines for this fixture, built from head-to-head history, home/away venue record and recent form, filtered to outcomes consistent with the published pick.

F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
B0
0-0 5.4%
0-1 8.4%
0-2 6.5%
0-3 3.4%
0-4 1.3%
0-5 0.4%
B1
1-0 7.4%
1-1 11.5%
1-2 8.9%
1-3 4.6%
1-4 1.8%
1-5 0.6%
B2
2-0 5.0%
2-1 7.8%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 3.2%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.4%
B3
3-0 2.3%
3-1 3.6%
3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
B4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 1.2%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
B5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Projected Scores (consistent with the pick)
1-1 11.5% model probability
1-2 8.9% model probability . seen x2 in H2H
1-0 7.4% model probability . seen x2 in H2H
[ ] Best match [ ] Possible [ ] Low . blank = contradicts pick
06Team Ratings
Belgium
Overall
6.9v
Scoring
8.0v
Defence
7.3v
France
Overall
8.0^
Scoring
8.0^
Defence
6.3^
07Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes20%
Home Win & BTTS No20%
Draw & BTTS Yes5%
Draw & BTTS No5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes26%
Away Win & BTTS No26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.521%
Home Win & Under 2.518%
Draw & Over 2.56%
Draw & Under 2.55%
Away Win & Over 2.528%
Away Win & Under 2.523%
08Stake Calculator
-
Kelly %
-
Stake
-
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
09Match Archives
Head to Head
14.10.24
UNL
Belgium1
France2
09.09.24
UNL
France2
Belgium0
01.07.24
EUR
France1
Belgium0
07.10.21
UNL
Belgium2
France3
10.07.18
WC
France1
Belgium0
07.06.15
FI
France3
Belgium4
14.08.13
FI
Belgium0
France0
15.11.11
FI
France0
Belgium0
18.02.04
FI
Belgium0
France2
18.05.02
FI
France1
Belgium2
Recent Form
Belgium
25.09.26
UNL
Italy0
Belgium2
W
10.07.26
WC
Spain2
Belgium1
L
07.07.26
WC
USA1
Belgium4
W
01.07.26
WC
Belgium3
Senegal2
W
27.06.26
WC
New Zealand1
Belgium5
W
21.06.26
WC
Belgium0
Iran0
D
15.06.26
WC
Belgium1
Egypt1
D
06.06.26
FI
Belgium5
Tunisia0
W
02.06.26
FI
Croatia0
Belgium2
W
01.04.26
FI
Mexico1
Belgium1
D
France
25.09.26
UNL
Turkey0
France1
W
18.07.26
WC
France4
England6
L
14.07.26
WC
France0
Spain2
L
09.07.26
WC
France2
Morocco0
W
04.07.26
WC
Paraguay0
France1
W
30.06.26
WC
France3
Sweden0
W
26.06.26
WC
Norway1
France4
W
22.06.26
WC
France3
Iraq0
W
16.06.26
WC
France3
Senegal1
W
08.06.26
FI
France3
Northern Ireland1
W
10Match Analysis

Football advice comes at you from every direction now — social tipsters, prediction bots, group chats, endless short videos. Most of it is noise. The signal, the part that genuinely sharpens your decisions, comes from the same place it always has: an unhurried look at what both teams have actually been doing, set against the price on offer. Here is that look, applied to this UEFA Nations League fixture.

The home team’s recent record stands at 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We read those recent games not just as results but as patterns. Are they consistently scoring first at home? Are they closing out the matches they control, or letting points slip from winning positions? The pattern inside the results tells you whether the form is sturdy or brittle — and at King Baudouin Stadium (Brussels), that difference often decides everything.

The visitors arrive on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We lean on the recent away record to gauge what kind of travelling side they currently are: organised and hard to break down, or prone to losing their shape when the first half hour does not go to plan? Recent away outings answer that directly, with little room for spin.

With both sides weighed, our recommended bet is Over 1.5 at @1.09, a call we are confident in at roughly 77%. The fixture starts at 7:45 pm.

That is the signal, cut free of the noise. The bettors who last are not the ones chasing every loud shout; they are the ones quietly trusting their own reading of the recent evidence, week after week, regardless of the noise around them. Run through our other tips for the day before you finalise your selections — the strongest slips usually draw on more than a single read.

 

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the "" prediction calculated?

Our tip combines recent team form, head-to-head history, and league-adjusted expected goals. It reflects the most statistically supported outcome, not a guarantee.

How accurate are UEFA Nations League predictions on this site?

Our editorial team scores every published tip against the final result to continuously refine our methodology and quality standards.

Is this prediction financial or betting advice?

No. This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your means.

11Reviewed By
T
The 100SureTips Analyst Desk
Senior Football Prediction Analyst
This fixture was analysed using head-to-head history, venue-specific form and recent results. Every published tip is tracked through to a settled result - see our full methodology for how selections are made.
Analysis last verified 29 Sep 2026, 8:06am
12Quick Answers
What is the recommended bet for Belgium vs France?
Our selection is Over 1.5 - over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.09. Tip confidence rating: 75%.
What is Belgium's current form?
Belgium have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has France been performing recently?
France have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Belgium lead with 2 wins versus France's 6, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
What is the most likely correct score?
Our data-weighted model projects 1-1 as the most probable scoreline consistent with this pick, built from head-to-head, home/away venue form and recent results.
!
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