Moderate Signal
60%

FK Minija vs Neptunas - Prediction & Betting Tips

FFK Minija vs NeptunasN
12:00 pm .- .N/A
Home
WWWWW
9W 0D 1L
v Declining
Away
WLWLL
5W 1D 4L
v Declining
100SureTips SelectionSaturday, 19th September 2026
1
Backing FK Minija to win
Implied Prob
73.5%
Bookmaker implied
Our Edge
-13.5%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
01Supporting Bets
Primary Selection
1 - FK Minija to win
1.36
BTTS - No70%FK Minija Clean Sheet60%
Betting Slip / Acca Builder
FK Minija vs Neptunas Competition: Lithuania I Lyga Date: Saturday, 19th September 2026 KO: 12:00 pm Pick: 1 (FK Minija to win) Odds: 1.36 Confidence: 60% Model Correct Score: 1-0 Also: BTTS - No (70%) Also: FK Minija Clean Sheet (60%)
02Head to Head
4
FK Minija
3
Draws
3
Neptunas
10
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Against Tip FK Minija won 4 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
03Stats Duel
FK Minija
Metric
Neptunas
2.6
Goals For / Game
1.2
0.5
Goals Against / Game
1.2
60%
Clean Sheets
30%
9-0-1
W - D - L
5-1-4
Win Rate
90%
50%
2.8
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
04Correct Score Projection

Our most likely scorelines for this fixture, built from head-to-head history, home/away venue record and recent form, filtered to outcomes consistent with the published pick.

N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
F0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 6.9%
0-2 4.1%
0-3 1.7%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
F1
1-0 9.6%
1-1 11.4%
1-2 6.9%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
F2
2-0 7.9%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.3%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
F3
3-0 4.4%
3-1 5.2%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
F4
4-0 1.8%
4-1 2.2%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Projected Scores (consistent with the pick)
1-0 9.6% model probability . seen x1 in H2H
2-1 9.5% model probability
2-0 7.9% model probability . seen x2 in H2H
[ ] Best match [ ] Possible [ ] Low . blank = contradicts pick
06Team Ratings
FK Minija
Overall
9.0v
Scoring
8.7v
Defence
8.3v
Neptunas
Overall
5.3^
Scoring
4.0^
Defence
6.0^
07Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes19%
Home Win & BTTS No43%
Draw & BTTS Yes1%
Draw & BTTS No2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes11%
Away Win & BTTS No25%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.537%
Home Win & Under 2.525%
Draw & Over 2.52%
Draw & Under 2.51%
Away Win & Over 2.521%
Away Win & Under 2.514%
08Stake Calculator
-
Kelly %
-
Stake
-
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
09Match Archives
Head to Head
16.05.26
IL
Neptunas1
FK Minija3
27.07.25
IL
Neptunas0
FK Minija1
15.03.25
IL
FK Minija0
Neptunas4
20.09.24
IL
Neptunas1
FK Minija1
03.05.24
IL
FK Minija2
Neptunas2
12.08.23
IL
FK Minija2
Neptunas0
24.03.23
IL
Neptunas0
FK Minija0
15.10.22
IL
FK Minija1
Neptunas0
10.06.22
IL
Neptunas2
FK Minija0
16.10.21
IL
Neptunas7
FK Minija1
Recent Form
FK Minija
12.09.26
IL
Dainava Alytus0
FK Minija3
W
05.09.26
IL
FK Minija3
Transinvest 20
W
01.09.26
CUP
FK Minija3
Dainava Alytus2
W
28.08.26
IL
Siauliai 21
FK Minija2
W
14.08.26
IL
Ekranas0
FK Minija5
W
08.08.26
IL
FK Minija3
BE1 NFA0
W
31.07.26
IL
Hegelmann Litauen 20
FK Minija4
W
28.07.26
IL
Zalgiris 21
FK Minija0
L
18.07.26
IL
FK Minija2
Jonava1
W
26.06.26
IL
Garliava0
FK Minija1
W
Neptunas
11.09.26
IL
Neptunas2
Jonava0
W
07.09.26
IL
Zalgiris 21
Neptunas0
L
29.08.26
IL
Neptunas3
Atmosfera1
W
22.08.26
IL
BFA Vilnius2
Neptunas0
L
15.08.26
IL
Neptunas0
Babrungas4
L
08.08.26
IL
Tauras Taurage0
Neptunas2
W
01.08.26
IL
Garliava0
Neptunas1
W
25.07.26
IL
Neptunas2
Siauliai 21
W
20.07.26
IL
Transinvest 22
Neptunas2
D
27.06.26
IL
Dainava Alytus1
Neptunas0
L
FK Minija (Home)
05.09.26
IL
FK Minija3
Transinvest 20
W
01.09.26
CUP
FK Minija3
Dainava Alytus2
W
08.08.26
IL
FK Minija3
BE1 NFA0
W
18.07.26
IL
FK Minija2
Jonava1
W
23.06.26
CUP
FK Minija2
FK Panevezys1
W
13.06.26
IL
FK Minija3
BFA Vilnius0
W
23.05.26
IL
FK Minija2
Tauras Taurage1
W
09.05.26
IL
FK Minija3
Dainava Alytus1
W
28.04.26
CUP
FK Minija2
Suduva (5-4)2
25.04.26
IL
FK Minija3
Siauliai 21
W
Neptunas (Away)
07.09.26
IL
Zalgiris 21
Neptunas0
L
22.08.26
IL
BFA Vilnius2
Neptunas0
L
08.08.26
IL
Tauras Taurage0
Neptunas2
W
01.08.26
IL
Garliava0
Neptunas1
W
20.07.26
IL
Transinvest 22
Neptunas2
D
27.06.26
IL
Dainava Alytus1
Neptunas0
L
05.06.26
IL
Ekranas1
Neptunas2
W
22.05.26
IL
Hegelmann Litauen 22
Neptunas3
W
08.05.26
IL
Jonava0
Neptunas1
W
25.04.26
IL
Atmosfera1
Neptunas3
W
10Match Analysis

Football advice comes at you from every direction now — social tipsters, prediction bots, group chats, endless short videos. Most of it is noise. The signal, the part that genuinely sharpens your decisions, comes from the same place it always has: an unhurried look at what both teams have actually been doing, set against the price on offer. Here is that look, applied to this Lithuania I Lyga fixture.

The home team’s recent record stands at 5 wins from their last 5 games. We read those recent games not just as results but as patterns. Are they consistently scoring first at home? Are they closing out the matches they control, or letting points slip from winning positions? The pattern inside the results tells you whether the form is sturdy or brittle — and at N/A, that difference often decides everything.

The visitors arrive on 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We lean on the recent away record to gauge what kind of travelling side they currently are: organised and hard to break down, or prone to losing their shape when the first half hour does not go to plan? Recent away outings answer that directly, with little room for spin.

With both sides weighed, our recommended bet is 1 at @1.36, a call we are confident in at roughly 51%. The fixture starts at 12:00 pm.

That is the signal, cut free of the noise. The bettors who last are not the ones chasing every loud shout; they are the ones quietly trusting their own reading of the recent evidence, week after week, regardless of the noise around them. Run through our other tips for the day before you finalise your selections — the strongest slips usually draw on more than a single read.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the "" prediction calculated?

Our tip combines recent team form, head-to-head history, and league-adjusted expected goals. It reflects the most statistically supported outcome, not a guarantee.

How accurate are Lithuania I Lyga predictions on this site?

Our editorial team scores every published tip against the final result to continuously refine our methodology and quality standards.

Is this prediction financial or betting advice?

No. This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your means.

11Reviewed By
T
The 100SureTips Analyst Desk
Senior Football Prediction Analyst
This fixture was analysed using head-to-head history, venue-specific form and recent results. Every published tip is tracked through to a settled result - see our full methodology for how selections are made.
Analysis last verified 19 Sep 2026, 7:14am
12Quick Answers
What is the recommended bet for FK Minija vs Neptunas?
Our selection is 1 - FK Minija to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is FK Minija's current form?
FK Minija have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Neptunas been performing recently?
Neptunas have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FK Minija lead with 4 wins versus Neptunas's 3, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
What is the most likely correct score?
Our data-weighted model projects 1-0 as the most probable scoreline consistent with this pick, built from head-to-head, home/away venue form and recent results.
!
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