Strong Signal
80%

Nijmegen vs Excelsior - Prediction & Betting Tips

NNijmegen vs ExcelsiorE
5:45 pm .- .Goffertstadion (Nijmegen)
Home
LWLLW
3W 1D 6L
v Declining
Away
WWLWW
9W 0D 1L
- Steady
100SureTips SelectionTuesday, 8th September 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob
66.2%
Bookmaker implied
Our Edge
+13.8%
Value detected
Kelly %
40.8%
Suggested bankroll %
01Supporting Bets
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 - over 2.5 goals
1.51
Over 2.5 Goals85%Over 1.5 Goals90%BTTS - Yes70%
Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Nijmegen vs Excelsior Competition: Eredivisie Date: Tuesday, 8th September 2026 KO: 5:45 pm Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.51 Confidence: 80% Model Correct Score: 1-1 Also: Over 2.5 Goals (85%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS - Yes (70%)
02Head to Head
5
Nijmegen
1
Draws
4
Excelsior
10
Meetings
3.9
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
03Stats Duel
Nijmegen
Metric
Excelsior
1.3
Goals For / Game
3.1
1.7
Goals Against / Game
1.2
10%
Clean Sheets
30%
3-1-6
W - D - L
9-0-1
Win Rate
30%
90%
3.7
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
04Correct Score Projection

Our most likely scorelines for this fixture, built from head-to-head history, home/away venue record and recent form, filtered to outcomes consistent with the published pick.

E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
N0
0-0 2.3%
0-1 4.6%
0-2 4.6%
0-3 3.1%
0-4 1.5%
0-5 0.6%
N1
1-0 4.1%
1-1 8.2%
1-2 8.2%
1-3 5.4%
1-4 2.7%
1-5 1.1%
N2
2-0 3.7%
2-1 7.3%
2-2 7.2%
2-3 4.8%
2-4 2.4%
2-5 1.0%
N3
3-0 2.2%
3-1 4.3%
3-2 4.3%
3-3 2.8%
3-4 1.4%
3-5 0.6%
N4
4-0 1.0%
4-1 1.9%
4-2 1.9%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.6%
4-5 0.3%
N5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Projected Scores (consistent with the pick)
1-1 8.2% model probability . seen x1 in H2H
2-1 7.3% model probability . seen x2 in H2H
1-2 8.2% model probability
[ ] Best match [ ] Possible [ ] Low . blank = contradicts pick
06Team Ratings
Nijmegen
Overall
3.3v
Scoring
4.3v
Defence
4.3v
Excelsior
Overall
9.0^
Scoring
10.0^
Defence
6.0^
07Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes17%
Home Win & BTTS No7%
Draw & BTTS Yes3%
Draw & BTTS No1%
Away Win & BTTS Yes50%
Away Win & BTTS No22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.520%
Home Win & Under 2.54%
Draw & Over 2.53%
Draw & Under 2.51%
Away Win & Over 2.561%
Away Win & Under 2.511%
08Stake Calculator
-
Kelly %
-
Stake
-
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
09Match Archives
Head to Head
04.04.26
ERE
Excelsior0
Nijmegen2
09.08.25
ERE
Nijmegen5
Excelsior0
06.05.24
ERE
Excelsior0
Nijmegen3
13.08.23
ERE
Nijmegen3
Excelsior4
19.02.23
ERE
Excelsior0
Nijmegen3
08.10.22
ERE
Nijmegen1
Excelsior1
09.04.21
EER
Excelsior2
Nijmegen1
08.01.21
EER
Nijmegen3
Excelsior2
06.12.19
EER
Excelsior2
Nijmegen1
29.10.19
KNV
Excelsior4
Nijmegen2
Recent Form
Nijmegen
05.09.26
ERE
Nijmegen1
Feyenoord3
L
29.08.26
ERE
Zwolle1
Nijmegen3
W
25.08.26
CL
Bodo/Glimt3
Nijmegen0
L
19.08.26
CL
Nijmegen1
Bodo/Glimt3
L
15.08.26
ERE
Willem II1
Nijmegen4
W
11.08.26
CL
Nijmegen2
Olympiacos Piraeus1
W
08.08.26
ERE
Nijmegen1
Telstar2
L
04.08.26
CL
Olympiacos Piraeus0
Nijmegen0
D
31.07.26
CF
Nijmegen1
Sevilla2
L
25.07.26
CF
Nijmegen0
Elversberg1
L
Excelsior
05.09.26
ERE
Willem II0
Excelsior3
W
29.08.26
ERE
Excelsior2
Sparta Rotterdam1
W
15.08.26
ERE
Excelsior1
PSV2
L
07.08.26
ERE
Cambuur0
Excelsior4
W
01.08.26
CF
De Graafschap1
Excelsior5
W
24.07.26
CF
Heracles3
Excelsior5
W
18.07.26
CF
NAC Breda1
Excelsior3
W
11.07.26
CF
Dordrecht0
Excelsior2
W
04.07.26
CF
Excelsior3
Cambuur2
W
17.05.26
ERE
Sparta Rotterdam2
Excelsior3
W
10Match Analysis

Football advice comes at you from every direction now — social tipsters, prediction bots, group chats, endless short videos. Most of it is noise. The signal, the part that genuinely sharpens your decisions, comes from the same place it always has: an unhurried look at what both teams have actually been doing, set against the price on offer. Here is that look, applied to this Eredivisie fixture.

The home team’s recent record stands at 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We read those recent games not just as results but as patterns. Are they consistently scoring first at home? Are they closing out the matches they control, or letting points slip from winning positions? The pattern inside the results tells you whether the form is sturdy or brittle — and at Goffertstadion (Nijmegen), that difference often decides everything.

The visitors arrive on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We lean on the recent away record to gauge what kind of travelling side they currently are: organised and hard to break down, or prone to losing their shape when the first half hour does not go to plan? Recent away outings answer that directly, with little room for spin.

With both sides weighed, our recommended bet is Over 2.5 at @1.51, a call we are confident in at roughly 77%. The fixture starts at 5:45 pm.

That is the signal, cut free of the noise. The bettors who last are not the ones chasing every loud shout; they are the ones quietly trusting their own reading of the recent evidence, week after week, regardless of the noise around them. Run through our other tips for the day before you finalise your selections — the strongest slips usually draw on more than a single read.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the "" prediction calculated?

Our tip combines recent team form, head-to-head history, and league-adjusted expected goals. It reflects the most statistically supported outcome, not a guarantee.

How accurate are Eredivisie predictions on this site?

Our editorial team scores every published tip against the final result to continuously refine our methodology and quality standards.

Is this prediction financial or betting advice?

No. This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your means.

11Reviewed By
T
The 100SureTips Analyst Desk
Senior Football Prediction Analyst
This fixture was analysed using head-to-head history, venue-specific form and recent results. Every published tip is tracked through to a settled result - see our full methodology for how selections are made.
Analysis last verified 10 Sep 2026, 6:19pm
12Quick Answers
What is the recommended bet for Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Our selection is Over 2.5 - over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.51. Tip confidence rating: 80%.
What is Nijmegen's current form?
Nijmegen have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Excelsior been performing recently?
Excelsior have recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Nijmegen lead with 5 wins versus Excelsior's 4, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
What is the most likely correct score?
Our data-weighted model projects 1-1 as the most probable scoreline consistent with this pick, built from head-to-head, home/away venue form and recent results.
!
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