Moderate Signal
50%

Pakhtakor vs Termez Surkhon — Prediction & Betting Tips

PPakhtakor vs Termez SurkhonT
4:00 pm · ·Pakhtakor Central Stadium (Tashkent)
Home
WWDDW
5W 5D 0L
▼ Declining
Away
LLWLL
3W 1D 6L
→ Steady
100SureTips SelectionFriday, 21st August 2026
1
Backing Pakhtakor to win
Pakhtakor
50%
Draw
30%
Termez Surkhon
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
80%
Bookmaker implied
Our Edge
-30%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
02Head to Head
5
Pakhtakor
3
Draws
2
Termez Surkhon
10
Meetings
2.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral Pakhtakor won 5 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
03Stats Duel
Pakhtakor
Metric
Termez Surkhon
1.5
Goals For / Game
1
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.6
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-5-0
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate
50%
30%
2.5
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
04Correct Score Projection

Our most likely scorelines for this fixture, built from head-to-head history, home/away venue record and recent form, filtered to outcomes consistent with the published pick.

T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
P0
0-0 7.0%
0-1 6.9%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 11.7%
1-1 11.5%
1-2 5.7%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 9.8%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 4.8%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 5.5%
3-1 5.4%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
P4
4-0 2.3%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Projected Scores (consistent with the pick)
1–0 11.7% model probability · seen ×2 in H2H
2–1 9.7% model probability · seen ×1 in H2H
2–0 9.8% model probability
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · blank = contradicts pick
05Market Odds Intelligence
Pakhtakor Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Termez Surkhon Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
06Team Ratings
Pakhtakor
Overall
6.5
Scoring
5.0
Defence
7.3
Termez Surkhon
Overall
3.3
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.7
07Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes27%
Home Win & BTTS No18%
Draw & BTTS Yes16%
Draw & BTTS No11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes17%
Away Win & BTTS No11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.523%
Home Win & Under 2.523%
Draw & Over 2.514%
Draw & Under 2.514%
Away Win & Over 2.514%
Away Win & Under 2.514%
08Stake Calculator
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
09Match Archives
Head to Head
03.05.26
SL
Termez Surkhon1
Pakhtakor1
29.09.25
SL
Pakhtakor1
Termez Surkhon0
03.05.25
SL
Termez Surkhon2
Pakhtakor1
22.08.24
SL
Pakhtakor0
Termez Surkhon1
04.03.24
SL
Termez Surkhon0
Pakhtakor3
24.11.23
SL
Termez Surkhon1
Pakhtakor2
29.05.23
SL
Pakhtakor1
Termez Surkhon0
09.10.22
SL
Termez Surkhon1
Pakhtakor1
12.05.22
SL
Pakhtakor2
Termez Surkhon2
06.11.21
SL
Pakhtakor5
Termez Surkhon0
Recent Form
Pakhtakor
16.08.26
SL
Nasaf Qarshi1
Pakhtakor2
W
11.08.26
CL
Pakhtakor3
Al Hussein0
W
06.08.26
SL
Pakhtakor2
Buxoro2
D
01.08.26
SL
Andijan0
Pakhtakor0
D
26.07.26
SL
Bunyodkor0
Pakhtakor1
W
21.07.26
SL
Pakhtakor2
Xorazm Urganch1
W
17.07.26
SL
Pakhtakor1
Lok. Tashkent1
D
03.05.26
SL
Termez Surkhon1
Pakhtakor1
D
28.04.26
SL
Pakhtakor2
Nasaf Qarshi2
D
22.04.26
SL
Buxoro0
Pakhtakor1
W
Termez Surkhon
13.08.26
SL
Termez Surkhon1
Sogdiana3
L
07.08.26
SL
Termez Surkhon0
Navbahor Namangan1
L
03.08.26
SL
Kokand 19120
Termez Surkhon1
W
28.07.26
SL
Xorazm Urganch1
Termez Surkhon0
L
23.07.26
SL
Termez Surkhon1
Din. Samarkand2
L
18.07.26
SL
Andijan1
Termez Surkhon2
W
03.05.26
SL
Termez Surkhon1
Pakhtakor1
D
28.04.26
SL
Sogdiana5
Termez Surkhon2
L
22.04.26
SL
Termez Surkhon2
Mashal Muborak1
W
17.04.26
SL
Termez Surkhon0
Qizilqum1
L
Pakhtakor (Home)
11.08.26
CL
Pakhtakor3
Al Hussein0
W
06.08.26
SL
Pakhtakor2
Buxoro2
D
21.07.26
SL
Pakhtakor2
Xorazm Urganch1
W
17.07.26
SL
Pakhtakor1
Lok. Tashkent1
D
28.04.26
SL
Pakhtakor2
Nasaf Qarshi2
D
18.04.26
SL
Pakhtakor4
Din. Samarkand2
W
13.04.26
SL
Pakhtakor2
Mashal Muborak1
W
04.04.26
SL
Pakhtakor3
OKMK1
W
10.03.26
SL
Pakhtakor0
Navbahor Namangan2
L
27.02.26
SL
Pakhtakor2
Qizilqum0
W
Termez Surkhon (Away)
03.08.26
SL
Kokand 19120
Termez Surkhon1
W
28.07.26
SL
Xorazm Urganch1
Termez Surkhon0
L
18.07.26
SL
Andijan1
Termez Surkhon2
W
28.04.26
SL
Sogdiana5
Termez Surkhon2
L
12.04.26
SL
Navbahor Namangan2
Termez Surkhon0
L
08.04.26
SL
OKMK1
Termez Surkhon1
D
20.03.26
SL
Nasaf Qarshi0
Termez Surkhon1
W
28.02.26
SL
Lok. Tashkent3
Termez Surkhon1
L
17.02.26
CF
R. Volgograd0
Termez Surkhon1
W
15.02.26
CF
Samgurali1
Termez Surkhon2
W
10Match Analysis

Football advice comes at you from every direction now — social tipsters, prediction bots, group chats, endless short videos. Most of it is noise. The signal, the part that genuinely sharpens your decisions, comes from the same place it always has: an unhurried look at what both teams have actually been doing, set against the price on offer. Here is that look, applied to this Uzbekistan Super League fixture.

The home team’s recent record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. We read those recent games not just as results but as patterns. Are they consistently scoring first at home? Are they closing out the matches they control, or letting points slip from winning positions? The pattern inside the results tells you whether the form is sturdy or brittle — and at Pakhtakor Central Stadium (Tashkent), that difference often decides everything.

The visitors arrive on 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games. We lean on the recent away record to gauge what kind of travelling side they currently are: organised and hard to break down, or prone to losing their shape when the first half hour does not go to plan? Recent away outings answer that directly, with little room for spin.

With both sides weighed, our recommended bet is 1 at @1.25, a call we are confident in at roughly 50,30,20%. The fixture starts at 4:00 pm.

That is the signal, cut free of the noise. The bettors who last are not the ones chasing every loud shout; they are the ones quietly trusting their own reading of the recent evidence, week after week, regardless of the noise around them. Run through our other tips for the day before you finalise your selections — the strongest slips usually draw on more than a single read.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the "1" prediction calculated?

Our tip combines recent team form, head-to-head history, and league-adjusted expected goals. It reflects the most statistically supported outcome, not a guarantee.

How accurate are Uzbekistan Super League predictions on this site?

Our editorial team scores every published tip against the final result to continuously refine our methodology and quality standards.

Is this prediction financial or betting advice?

No. This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your means.

11Reviewed By
T
The 100SureTips Analyst Desk
Senior Football Prediction Analyst
This fixture was analysed using head-to-head history, venue-specific form and recent results. Every published tip is tracked through to a settled result — see our full methodology for how selections are made.
Analysis last verified 21 Aug 2026, 6:23am
12Quick Answers
What is the recommended bet for Pakhtakor vs Termez Surkhon?
Our selection is 1 — Pakhtakor to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Pakhtakor's current form?
Pakhtakor have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Termez Surkhon been performing recently?
Termez Surkhon have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Pakhtakor lead with 5 wins versus Termez Surkhon's 2, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
What is the most likely correct score?
Our data-weighted model projects 1-0 as the most probable scoreline consistent with this pick, built from head-to-head, home/away venue form and recent results.
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