WON Tip WON Wales 2-1 Norway

Wales vs Norway - Prediction & Betting Tips

WWales 2-1 NorwayN
7:45 pm .Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff)
Home
LLLDD
2W 3D 5L
- Steady
Away
LWLWW
6W 1D 3L
- Steady
100SureTips SelectionThursday, 1st October 2026
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob
80.6%
Bookmaker implied
Our Edge
+0.4%
Value detected
Kelly %
1.8%
Suggested bankroll %
01Supporting Bets
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 - over 1.5 goals
1.24
Over 2.5 Goals65%Over 1.5 Goals90%BTTS - Yes80%
Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Wales vs Norway Competition: UEFA Nations League Date: Thursday, 1st October 2026 KO: 7:45 pm Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals) Odds: 1.24 Confidence: 81% Model Correct Score: 1-1 Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS - Yes (80%)
02Head to Head
3
Wales
3
Draws
1
Norway
7
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
43%
BTTS
43%
Over 2.5
Neutral Over 1.5 in 57% of H2H.
03Stats Duel
Wales
Metric
Norway
1.4
Goals For / Game
2.1
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.7
10%
Clean Sheets
0%
2-3-5
W - D - L
6-1-3
Win Rate
20%
60%
3.4
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
80%
BTTS Rate
04Correct Score Projection

Our most likely scorelines for this fixture, built from head-to-head history, home/away venue record and recent form, filtered to outcomes consistent with the published pick.

N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
W0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 7.4%
0-2 4.9%
0-3 2.2%
0-4 0.7%
0-5 0.2%
W1
1-0 8.6%
1-1 11.5%
1-2 7.7%
1-3 3.4%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
W2
2-0 6.7%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.7%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
W3
3-0 3.5%
3-1 4.7%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
W4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 1.8%
4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
W5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Projected Scores (consistent with the pick)
1-1 11.5% model probability . seen x1 in H2H
1-0 8.6% model probability . seen x1 in H2H
2-1 9.0% model probability
[ ] Best match [ ] Possible [ ] Low . blank = contradicts pick
06Team Ratings
Wales
Overall
2.9^
Scoring
4.7^
Defence
4.7^
Norway
Overall
6.3-
Scoring
7.0-
Defence
4.3-
07Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes16%
Home Win & BTTS No4%
Draw & BTTS Yes16%
Draw & BTTS No4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes48%
Away Win & BTTS No12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.513%
Home Win & Under 2.57%
Draw & Over 2.513%
Draw & Under 2.57%
Away Win & Over 2.539%
Away Win & Under 2.521%
08Stake Calculator
-
Kelly %
-
Stake
-
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
09Match Archives
Head to Head
12.11.11
FI
Wales4
Norway1
06.02.08
FI
Wales3
Norway0
27.05.04
FI
Norway0
Wales0
05.09.01
WC
Norway3
Wales2
07.10.00
WC
Wales1
Norway1
21.09.83
EUR
Norway0
Wales0
22.09.82
EUR
Wales1
Norway0
Recent Form
Wales
27.09.26
UNL
Denmark2
Wales0
L
24.09.26
UNL
Portugal1
Wales0
L
06.06.26
FI
Romania2
Wales1
L
02.06.26
FI
Wales1
Ghana1
D
31.03.26
FI
Wales1
Northern Ireland1
D
26.03.26
WC
Wales1
Bosnia & Herzegovina (2-4)1
18.11.25
WC
Wales7
North Macedonia1
W
15.11.25
WC
Liechtenstein0
Wales1
W
13.10.25
WC
Wales2
Belgium4
L
09.10.25
FI
England3
Wales0
L
Norway
27.09.26
UNL
Norway1
Portugal2
L
24.09.26
UNL
Norway3
Denmark2
W
11.07.26
WC
Norway1
England2
L
05.07.26
WC
Brazil1
Norway2
W
30.06.26
WC
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
W
26.06.26
WC
Norway1
France4
L
23.06.26
WC
Norway3
Senegal2
W
16.06.26
WC
Iraq1
Norway4
W
07.06.26
FI
Morocco1
Norway1
D
01.06.26
FI
Norway3
Sweden1
W
10Match Analysis

Football advice comes at you from every direction now — social tipsters, prediction bots, group chats, endless short videos. Most of it is noise. The signal, the part that genuinely sharpens your decisions, comes from the same place it always has: an unhurried look at what both teams have actually been doing, set against the price on offer. Here is that look, applied to this UEFA Nations League fixture.

The home team’s recent record stands at 2 draws, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We read those recent games not just as results but as patterns. Are they consistently scoring first at home? Are they closing out the matches they control, or letting points slip from winning positions? The pattern inside the results tells you whether the form is sturdy or brittle — and at Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff), that difference often decides everything.

The visitors arrive on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We lean on the recent away record to gauge what kind of travelling side they currently are: organised and hard to break down, or prone to losing their shape when the first half hour does not go to plan? Recent away outings answer that directly, with little room for spin.

With both sides weighed, our recommended bet is Over 1.5 at @1.24, a call we are confident in at roughly 90%. The fixture starts at 7:45 pm.

That is the signal, cut free of the noise. The bettors who last are not the ones chasing every loud shout; they are the ones quietly trusting their own reading of the recent evidence, week after week, regardless of the noise around them. Run through our other tips for the day before you finalise your selections — the strongest slips usually draw on more than a single read.

 

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the "" prediction calculated?

Our tip combines recent team form, head-to-head history, and league-adjusted expected goals. It reflects the most statistically supported outcome, not a guarantee.

How accurate are UEFA Nations League predictions on this site?

Our editorial team scores every published tip against the final result to continuously refine our methodology and quality standards.

Is this prediction financial or betting advice?

No. This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your means.

11Reviewed By
T
The 100SureTips Analyst Desk
Senior Football Prediction Analyst
This fixture was analysed using head-to-head history, venue-specific form and recent results. Every published tip is tracked through to a settled result - see our full methodology for how selections are made.
Analysis last verified 2 Oct 2026, 8:00am
12Quick Answers
What is the recommended bet for Wales vs Norway?
Our selection is Over 1.5 - over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 81%.
What is Wales's current form?
Wales have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Norway been performing recently?
Norway have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Wales lead with 3 wins versus Norway's 1, with 3 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 43%.
What is the most likely correct score?
Our data-weighted model projects 1-1 as the most probable scoreline consistent with this pick, built from head-to-head, home/away venue form and recent results.
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