Moderate Signal
64%

Pafos vs AEL Limassol - Prediction & Betting Tips

PPafos vs AEL LimassolA
6:00 pm .- .Stelios Kyriakides Stadium (Pafos)
Home
WDWWW
5W 3D 2L
- Steady
Away
WLWDW
5W 3D 2L
v Declining
100SureTips SelectionFriday, 18th September 2026
1
Backing Pafos to win
Implied Prob
67.1%
Bookmaker implied
Our Edge
-3.1%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
01Supporting Bets
Primary Selection
1 - Pafos to win
1.49
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Pafos vs AEL Limassol Competition: Cyprus League Date: Friday, 18th September 2026 KO: 6:00 pm Pick: 1 (Pafos to win) Odds: 1.49 Confidence: 64% Model Correct Score: 1-0 Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
02Head to Head
10
Pafos
0
Draws
0
AEL Limassol
10
Meetings
2.9
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Pafos won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
03Stats Duel
Pafos
Metric
AEL Limassol
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.7
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.6
50%
Clean Sheets
20%
5-3-2
W - D - L
5-3-2
Win Rate
50%
50%
3
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
04Correct Score Projection

Our most likely scorelines for this fixture, built from head-to-head history, home/away venue record and recent form, filtered to outcomes consistent with the published pick.

A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
P0
0-0 5.4%
0-1 5.3%
0-2 2.6%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
P1
1-0 10.4%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 5.0%
1-3 1.6%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 10.1%
2-1 10.0%
2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 6.6%
3-1 6.5%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 3.2%
4-1 3.1%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 1.2%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Projected Scores (consistent with the pick)
1-0 10.4% model probability . seen x2 in H2H
2-0 10.1% model probability
2-1 10.0% model probability
[ ] Best match [ ] Possible [ ] Low . blank = contradicts pick
06Team Ratings
Pafos
Overall
5.9v
Scoring
5.7v
Defence
7.0v
AEL Limassol
Overall
5.9v
Scoring
5.7v
Defence
4.7v
07Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes19%
Home Win & BTTS No19%
Draw & BTTS Yes12%
Draw & BTTS No12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes20%
Away Win & BTTS No20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.521%
Home Win & Under 2.517%
Draw & Over 2.513%
Draw & Under 2.510%
Away Win & Over 2.521%
Away Win & Under 2.518%
08Stake Calculator
-
Kelly %
-
Stake
-
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
09Match Archives
Head to Head
22.04.26
CUP
Pafos3
AEL Limassol1
08.04.26
CUP
AEL Limassol1
Pafos2
15.02.26
CL
AEL Limassol0
Pafos1
02.11.25
CL
Pafos1
AEL Limassol0
06.01.25
CL
Pafos4
AEL Limassol0
22.09.24
CL
AEL Limassol1
Pafos3
23.12.23
CL
AEL Limassol1
Pafos2
02.09.23
CL
Pafos3
AEL Limassol1
08.02.23
CL
Pafos1
AEL Limassol0
06.11.22
CL
AEL Limassol1
Pafos3
Recent Form
Pafos
13.09.26
CL
AEK Larnaca0
Pafos1
W
07.09.26
CL
Pafos0
Ol. Nicosia0
D
03.09.26
SC
Omonia0
Pafos1
W
30.08.26
CL
Karmiotissa0
Pafos3
W
27.08.26
UECL
Pafos4
Dinamo City2
W
20.08.26
UECL
Dinamo City1
Pafos1
D
13.08.26
EL
Pafos3
Salzburg3
D
06.08.26
EL
Salzburg1
Pafos0
L
30.07.26
EL
Pafos4
Hajduk Split0
W
23.07.26
EL
Hajduk Split2
Pafos0
L
AEL Limassol
11.09.26
CL
AEL Limassol2
Nea Salamis1
W
06.09.26
CL
APOEL6
AEL Limassol0
L
30.08.26
CL
AEL Limassol2
Anorthosis0
W
22.08.26
CF
AEL Limassol2
Aris2
D
19.08.26
CF
Krasava0
AEL Limassol4
W
09.08.26
CF
Radomiak Radom1
AEL Limassol1
D
06.08.26
CF
AEL Limassol2
Atromitos1
W
03.08.26
CF
Legia1
AEL Limassol1
D
15.05.26
CL
Chloraka1
AEL Limassol2
W
09.05.26
CL
AEL Limassol1
Ol. Nicosia3
L
10Match Analysis

Football advice comes at you from every direction now — social tipsters, prediction bots, group chats, endless short videos. Most of it is noise. The signal, the part that genuinely sharpens your decisions, comes from the same place it always has: an unhurried look at what both teams have actually been doing, set against the price on offer. Here is that look, applied to this Cyprus League fixture.

The home team’s recent record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. We read those recent games not just as results but as patterns. Are they consistently scoring first at home? Are they closing out the matches they control, or letting points slip from winning positions? The pattern inside the results tells you whether the form is sturdy or brittle — and at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium (Pafos), that difference often decides everything.

The visitors arrive on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We lean on the recent away record to gauge what kind of travelling side they currently are: organised and hard to break down, or prone to losing their shape when the first half hour does not go to plan? Recent away outings answer that directly, with little room for spin.

With both sides weighed, our recommended bet is 1 at @1.49, a call we are confident in at roughly 52%. The fixture starts at 6:00 pm.

That is the signal, cut free of the noise. The bettors who last are not the ones chasing every loud shout; they are the ones quietly trusting their own reading of the recent evidence, week after week, regardless of the noise around them. Run through our other tips for the day before you finalise your selections — the strongest slips usually draw on more than a single read.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the "" prediction calculated?

Our tip combines recent team form, head-to-head history, and league-adjusted expected goals. It reflects the most statistically supported outcome, not a guarantee.

How accurate are Cyprus League predictions on this site?

Our editorial team scores every published tip against the final result to continuously refine our methodology and quality standards.

Is this prediction financial or betting advice?

No. This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your means.

11Reviewed By
T
The 100SureTips Analyst Desk
Senior Football Prediction Analyst
This fixture was analysed using head-to-head history, venue-specific form and recent results. Every published tip is tracked through to a settled result - see our full methodology for how selections are made.
Analysis last verified 18 Sep 2026, 8:22am
12Quick Answers
What is the recommended bet for Pafos vs AEL Limassol?
Our selection is 1 - Pafos to win, priced at approximately 1.49. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Pafos's current form?
Pafos have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has AEL Limassol been performing recently?
AEL Limassol have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Pafos lead with 10 wins versus AEL Limassol's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
What is the most likely correct score?
Our data-weighted model projects 1-0 as the most probable scoreline consistent with this pick, built from head-to-head, home/away venue form and recent results.
!
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