Moderate Signal
57%

Al Ahli SC vs Al Gharafa - Prediction & Betting Tips

AAl Ahli SC vs Al GharafaA
5:00 pm .- .King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)
Home
WWWWL
6W 1D 3L
- Steady
Away
DDLLW
1W 3D 6L
v Declining
100SureTips SelectionMonday, 26th October 2026
1
Backing Al Ahli SC to win
Implied Prob
80%
Bookmaker implied
Our Edge
-23%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
01Supporting Bets
Primary Selection
1 - Al Ahli SC to win
1.25
Over 2.5 Goals85%Over 1.5 Goals90%BTTS - Yes75%
Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Ahli SC vs Al Gharafa Competition: AFC Champions League Date: Monday, 26th October 2026 KO: 5:00 pm Pick: 1 (Al Ahli SC to win) Odds: 1.25 Confidence: 57% Model Correct Score: 2-1 Also: Over 2.5 Goals (85%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS - Yes (75%)
02Head to Head
4
Al Ahli SC
3
Draws
2
Al Gharafa
9
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
56%
BTTS
44%
Over 2.5
Neutral Al Ahli SC won 4 of the last 9 meetings (3 draws).
03Stats Duel
Al Ahli SC
Metric
Al Gharafa
2.6
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.4
Goals Against / Game
2
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-1-3
W - D - L
1-3-6
Win Rate
60%
10%
3.7
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
04Correct Score Projection

Our most likely scorelines for this fixture, built from head-to-head history, home/away venue record and recent form, filtered to outcomes consistent with the published pick.

A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 3.3%
0-1 3.8%
0-2 2.2%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 7.4%
1-1 8.6%
1-2 4.9%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 8.4%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 6.3%
3-1 7.3%
3-2 4.2%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 3.6%
4-1 4.1%
4-2 2.4%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 1.6%
5-1 1.9%
5-2 1.1%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Projected Scores (consistent with the pick)
2-1 9.7% model probability
2-0 8.4% model probability . seen x1 in H2H
1-0 7.4% model probability . seen x1 in H2H
[ ] Best match [ ] Possible [ ] Low . blank = contradicts pick
06Team Ratings
Al Ahli SC
Overall
6.3v
Scoring
8.7v
Defence
5.3v
Al Gharafa
Overall
1.9v
Scoring
4.3v
Defence
3.3v
07Combination Markets
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes50%
Home Win & BTTS No17%
Draw & BTTS Yes17%
Draw & BTTS No6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes8%
Away Win & BTTS No3%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.557%
Home Win & Under 2.510%
Draw & Over 2.519%
Draw & Under 2.53%
Away Win & Over 2.59%
Away Win & Under 2.52%
08Stake Calculator
-
Kelly %
-
Stake
-
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
09Match Archives
Head to Head
20.10.25
CL
Al Ahli SC4
Al Gharafa0
17.02.25
CL
Al Ahli SC4
Al Gharafa2
26.07.24
CF
Al Ahli SC1
Al Gharafa0
13.03.18
CL
Al Ahli SC1
Al Gharafa1
05.03.18
CL
Al Gharafa1
Al Ahli SC1
23.04.13
CL
Al Gharafa2
Al Ahli SC2
27.02.13
CL
Al Ahli SC2
Al Gharafa0
28.04.10
CL
Al Ahli SC0
Al Gharafa1
09.03.10
CL
Al Gharafa3
Al Ahli SC2
Recent Form
Al Ahli SC
23.10.26
SPL
Al Ahli SC4
Al Khaleej1
W
19.10.26
SPL
Al Fayha2
Al Ahli SC3
W
12.10.26
CL
Al Wasl1
Al Ahli SC3
W
09.10.26
SPL
Al Fateh0
Al Ahli SC4
W
19.09.26
FIC
Mamelodi Sundowns2
Al Ahli SC1
L
14.09.26
CL
Al Ahli SC1
Pakhtakor1
D
11.09.26
SPL
Al Ahli SC3
Al Hazem1
W
08.09.26
SPL
Al Qadsiah3
Al Ahli SC2
L
04.09.26
SPL
Al Ahli SC5
Al Riyadh0
W
01.09.26
SPL
Al Hilal3
Al Ahli SC0
L
Al Gharafa
22.10.26
QSL
Al Gharafa2
Al Ahli Doha2
D
18.10.26
QSL
Al Gharafa0
Al Rayyan0
D
12.10.26
CL
Al Gharafa1
Esteghlal F.C.2
L
08.10.26
QSL
Al Wakrah3
Al Gharafa2
L
01.10.26
QSC
Al Gharafa4
Al Mesaimeer2
W
15.09.26
CL
Al Hilal2
Al Gharafa1
L
11.09.26
QSL
Al Gharafa0
Lusail0
D
05.09.26
QSL
Al Sadd4
Al Gharafa1
L
01.09.26
CUP
Al Sadd2
Al Gharafa1
L
27.08.26
QSL
Al Gharafa1
Shamal3
L
Al Ahli SC (Home)
23.10.26
SPL
Al Ahli SC4
Al Khaleej1
W
14.09.26
CL
Al Ahli SC1
Pakhtakor1
D
11.09.26
SPL
Al Ahli SC3
Al Hazem1
W
04.09.26
SPL
Al Ahli SC5
Al Riyadh0
W
26.08.26
FIC
Al Ahli SC1
Auckland FC0
W
22.08.26
SPL
Al Ahli SC4
Abha0
W
28.07.26
CF
Al Ahli SC1
Fulham1
D
24.07.26
CF
Al Ahli SC1
Vitoria Guimaraes3
L
16.05.26
SPL
Al Ahli SC3
Al Kholood0
W
06.05.26
SPL
Al Ahli SC3
Al Fateh1
W
Al Gharafa (Away)
08.10.26
QSL
Al Wakrah3
Al Gharafa2
L
15.09.26
CL
Al Hilal2
Al Gharafa1
L
05.09.26
QSL
Al Sadd4
Al Gharafa1
L
01.09.26
CUP
Al Sadd2
Al Gharafa1
L
27.07.26
CF
Al Riyadh2
Al Gharafa2
D
19.07.26
CF
Samorin2
Al Gharafa1
L
05.05.26
EMI
Al Wakrah0
Al Gharafa (2-3)0
08.04.26
QSL
Al Wakrah3
Al Gharafa3
D
04.04.26
QSL
Al Duhail3
Al Gharafa2
L
12.03.26
QSL
Qatar SC2
Al Gharafa0
L
10Match Analysis

Football advice comes at you from every direction now — social tipsters, prediction bots, group chats, endless short videos. Most of it is noise. The signal, the part that genuinely sharpens your decisions, comes from the same place it always has: an unhurried look at what both teams have actually been doing, set against the price on offer. Here is that look, applied to this AFC Champions League fixture.

The home team’s recent record stands at 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We read those recent games not just as results but as patterns. Are they consistently scoring first at home? Are they closing out the matches they control, or letting points slip from winning positions? The pattern inside the results tells you whether the form is sturdy or brittle — and at King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah), that difference often decides everything.

The visitors arrive on 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We lean on the recent away record to gauge what kind of travelling side they currently are: organised and hard to break down, or prone to losing their shape when the first half hour does not go to plan? Recent away outings answer that directly, with little room for spin.

With both sides weighed, our recommended bet is 1 at @1.25, a call we are confident in at roughly roughly 62. The fixture starts at 5:00 pm.

That is the signal, cut free of the noise. The bettors who last are not the ones chasing every loud shout; they are the ones quietly trusting their own reading of the recent evidence, week after week, regardless of the noise around them. Run through our other tips for the day before you finalise your selections — the strongest slips usually draw on more than a single read.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the "" prediction calculated?

Our tip combines recent team form, head-to-head history, and league-adjusted expected goals. It reflects the most statistically supported outcome, not a guarantee.

How accurate are AFC Champions League predictions on this site?

Our editorial team scores every published tip against the final result to continuously refine our methodology and quality standards.

Is this prediction financial or betting advice?

No. This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your means.

11Reviewed By
T
The 100SureTips Analyst Desk
Senior Football Prediction Analyst
This fixture was analysed using head-to-head history, venue-specific form and recent results. Every published tip is tracked through to a settled result - see our full methodology for how selections are made.
Analysis last verified 26 Oct 2026, 7:22am
12Quick Answers
What is the recommended bet for Al Ahli SC vs Al Gharafa?
Our selection is 1 - Al Ahli SC to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 57%.
What is Al Ahli SC's current form?
Al Ahli SC have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Gharafa been performing recently?
Al Gharafa have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Ahli SC lead with 4 wins versus Al Gharafa's 2, with 3 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 56%.
What is the most likely correct score?
Our data-weighted model projects 2-1 as the most probable scoreline consistent with this pick, built from head-to-head, home/away venue form and recent results.
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